Sharply escalating its war on Ukraine, Russia launched last weekend what has been described as its largest aerial onslaught against the country in the three-year-old conflict.
The war on Europe’s doorstep is spiraling into a chaos and catastrophe of proportions, few would have imagined until a few months ago when the United States reached out to Russian President Vladimir Putin to mediate the conflict.
According to newspaper accounts, the Russian attack involved the use of Iranian weapons, hundreds of drones, and more than 60 missiles that targeted Ukraine’s energy, industrial, and even medical facilities.
The massive attack simply overwhelmed Ukrainian defenses, upsetting civilian life and creating fears of widespread damage to the infrastructure.
This major Russian operation came at a time when the United States paused the delivery of defensive aid to Ukraine.
According to an Atlantic Council article, the list of halted weapons reportedly included interceptors for Patriot air defense systems, precision artillery rounds, and missiles that the Ukrainian air force fires from American-made F-16 jets.
The Politico reported that US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby made a determination for a temporary halt after a review of diminishing Pentagon arms stockpiles.
President Donald Trump later revoked the pause.
The U.S. has been providing weapons to both Israel and Ukraine in the last few years, so stockpile imperatives are understandable.
But the question is why Russia feels emboldened to launch such large attacks on Ukraine now.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia is trying to project itself as a globally influential power.
There could be several factors behind Moscow’s thinking — its ability to survive the Western sanctions, its economic and trade alliance with large economic powers like China and India, its ability to produce and maintain vast amounts of weapons, and Putin’s ambitions to establish dominance in the region.
Putin’s calculations and strategy to inflict harm on Ukraine appeared to be a retribution for Ukraine’s, and, as per the Russian perspective, the West-enabled recent attacks deep into Russia.
But Moscow may also have exploited the recent geostrategic developments.
As regards the huge attack on Ukraine, Moscow must have watched closely as the United States attacked Iranian nuclear sites, and it could have calculated that since Washington was focused on the Middle Eastern war theater, so it was opportune to inflict further harm on Ukraine.
Secondly, Putin might have sensed the United States’ talk of pausing some military supplies to Ukraine as a sign of dissociation in the making.
Trump warns countries aligning with BRICS of extra 10% tariffs
Another important development that almost coincided with the Russian attacks was the July 6-7 BRICS summit in Brazil, where leaders of member states, including Russia, China, and India, voiced their opposition to the U.S. stance on some key international issues. The alliance calls for a multipolar world system and challenges Western domination.
Moscow might also have felt compelled to demonstrate its military power in the backdrop of the June 25 NATO Summit at The Hague, The Netherlands, where member countries vowed to boost their defense spending to 5%.
The context of the Russian attacks shows that Moscow seems to have used battlefield Ukraine to send a stern message about its military power.
While the United States remains the preeminent power on the global stage, as proved by President Trump’s successful intervention in the Pakistan-India conflict in May and a ceasefire between Iran and Israel fighting in June, Russian actions reflect that it sees an opportunity to reassert its power and remind the world of its strong military muscle.
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